WagerWire Report: Smash or Fade? NFL Edition Week 1

It's been a long offseason, but an offseason that I believe will one day, maybe sooner rather than later, be considered a historical one. With all of the free agency drama and the hefty amount of franchise swinging trades, Tom Brady's retirement and inevitable unretirement, and the Cleveland Browns Deshaun Watson and Baker Mayfield spectacle, the anticipation for week one of NFL football has never been higher. I'm so excited that NFL football is back this Thursday, so what better way to kick off our new series of articles sponsored by WagerWire than to chose the season opener as the game I'd like to focus on in week one.


Buffalo Bills @ Los Angeles Rams

Thursday September 8th, 8:20 PM EST


Okay, here we go. We have a 2.5 point spread here with Buffalo being the favorite to win. However, a 2.5 point favorite to me is basically just a pick em'. If you decide to bet on the Bills to win by 1 or 2, more power to you, but I'm looking more at the moneyline here. Give me the defending Super Bowl champions Los Angeles Rams, to win outright. I'm sorry Bills Mafia, I love everything about you and I don't want to hurt you, but this is a numbers game.

I don't want to imagine a world where the second team in NFL history to win a Super Bowl in their home stadium, follows it up with a loss in their home opener the next season. The Bills have a stout defense, but a secondary that felt like the main liability last year at times. They took steps in improving that problem this offseason with the addition of Kaiir Elam on draft night from Florida, but lost a key piece in Levi Wallace. So how much did they actually improve? That's one question I'd love to see answered this Thursday. The Bills are asked to travel to LA in a Prime time game against the Super Bowl champions on opening day on their turf. Primetime Thursday night LA Rams are just different. In their last 5 Thursday night football games, they've garnered a 4-1 record. We watched the Bills get off to a slow start in Pittsburgh last year and I think we may be in for more of the same this season. Meanwhile, in the last 5 games, the Los Angeles Rams are 5-0 against the spread when playing in week one.


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But honestly, flip a coin on the moneyline. It's so close it's really only worth a parlay. To me, what's more interesting than the moneyline is the Over/Under. The O/U is set at 52. What many predict will be a high scoring all time offensive battle couldn't be farther from reality in my estimation. Both teams have incredibly talented defenses and the Bills only got better adding Von Miller to the mix, while the Rams answered with a blockbuster signing of their own in Bobby Wagner. Despite the offense we all know and love in LA, you may be surprised to hear that 4 of the last 6 games for the Rams have hit the under and when playing at home, the under was hit in 6 of the last 7 games. It gets crazier though... when playing against teams from the AFC East, the Rams hammered the under in 7 of their last 8 games. So here's my prediction... Rams ML +115 and give me the under in what could be an all time classic defensive matchup for -115.

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Thumbnail Photo credit: Brevin Townsell- LA Rams

Picture of Jalen Ramsey originally from https://www.lafbnetwork.com/when-will-jalen-ramsey-get-his-1st-int/

Thumbnail photo credit: Getty Images

Picture of Josh Allen originally from https://nypost.com/2022/08/08/bills-quarterback-josh-allen-steamed-after-fan-throws-football-at-him/


Betting lines sited from Sports Betting at oddshark.com





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